Инд. авторы:	Baranovskiy N.V., Barakhnin V.B., Yankovich E.
Заглавие:	GIS-technologies and mathematical simulation as tools for lightning-caused forest fire danger prediction
Библ. ссылка:	Baranovskiy N.V., Barakhnin V.B., Yankovich E. GIS-technologies and mathematical simulation as tools for lightning-caused forest fire danger prediction // CEUR Workshop Proceedings. - 2017. - Vol.1839. - P.2-15. - ISSN 1613-0073.
Внешние системы:	РИНЦ: 31025633; SCOPUS: 2-s2.0-85020501136;
Реферат:	eng: New approach to forecasting of forest fire danger caused by storm activity is presented in the article. This approach is based on using the criteria of forest fire danger and physically proved mathematical models of forest fuel ignition. The formula of criterion is based on a probabilistic assessment of forest fire danger and uses the main theorems of probability theory. Data of a forest fire retrospective on the controlled territory are used to assess the members in probabilistic criterion. Timiryazevskiy local forestry of the Timiryazevskiy timber enterprise of the Tomsk region is considered as a typical territory. It is shown that it is not enough to use only statistical information on forest fires for an adequate assessment of the forest fire danger caused by action of storm activity. Visualization of data is carried out with the use of geoinformation technologies.
Ключевые слова:	Gis; Lightning; Mathematical simulation; Prediction; Data visualization; Deforestation; Fire hazards; Fires; Forestry; Geographic information systems; Lightning; Probability; Storms; Timber; Forest fires; Geoinformation technologies; Mathematical simulations; Probabilistic assessments; Forecasting; Storm activities; Statistical information; Probability theory; Probabilistic criteria; Forest fire danger;
Издано:	2017
Физ. характеристика:	с.2-15
Конференция:	Название: Международная конференция «Математические и информационные технологии, MIT-2016» Аббревиатура: MIT-2016 Город: Врнячка Баня, Будва Страна: Сербия, Черногория Даты проведения: 2016-08-28 - 2016-09-05 Ссылка: http://conf.nsc.ru/MIT-2016
Цитирование:	1. Conedera M., Cesti G., Pezzatti G. B. et al. Lightning-induced fires in the Alpine region: An increasing problem//Forest Ecology and Management. 2006. 234, Suppl. 1. P. S68. 2. Taylor S. W., Alexander M. E. Science, technology and human factors in fire danger rating: The Canadian experience//Int. J. Wildland Fire. 2006. 15, 1. 121- 135. 3. Baranovskiy N.V. Thermophysical aspects of prognostic modeling of forest fire danger. Dissertation Dr. of Science in Physics and Mathematics. Tomsk: Tomsk Polytechnic University. 2012. 436 P. (In Russian). 4. Van Wagner, C. E. Development and structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System/Petawawa. Canadian Forest Service. Technical report 35. Ontario, 1987. 37 p. 5. Deeming J. E., Burgan K. E., Cohen J. D. The National Fire-Danger Rating System. Ogden, Utah: USDA Forest Service, General Technical report. INT-39, 1978. 66 . 6. Camia A., Barbosa P., Amatulli G., San-Miguel-Ayanz J. Fire danger rating in the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS): Current developments//Forest Ecology and Management. 2006. V. 234, suppl. 1. P. S20. 7. Kuznetsov G.V., Baranovskiy N.V. Prediction of forest fire occurrence and ecological consequences. Novosibirsk: Publishing House of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Science. 2009. 301 P. (In Russian). 8. Latham D., Williams E. (2001) Lightning and forest fires//Forest Fires: Behavior and Ecological Effects. Amsterdam: Elsevier, P. 375-418. 9. Williams E.R. (1989) The tripole structure of thunderstorms//J. Geophys. Res, 94, 13151-13167. 10. Kozlov V.I., Mullayarov V.A. (2004) Thunderstorm activity in Yakutia. Yakutsk: YaF Izd-va SB RAS, 104 p. (In Russian). 11. Latham D.J. (1991) Lightning flashes from a prescribed fire-induced cloud//J. Geophyics Res, 96, 17151-17157. 12. Ivanov V.A. (1996) Forest fires from thunderstorms in the Yenisei Plain: Autoref. thes. DSci. Krasnoyarsk, 23 p. (In Russian). 13. Uman M. A. (1969) Lightning. N. Y.: McGraw-Hill. 320 p. 14. Cummins K. L., Murphy M. J., Bardo E. A. et al. (1998) A combined TOA/MDF technology upgrade of the U.S. national lightning detection network//J. Geophys. Res, 103, 90359044. 15. Azmetov R.R., Belyayev A.I., Moskovenko V.M. (2000) Prospects of establishment of the Russian system of thunderstorm electromagnetic monitoring for fire protection, power engineering, aviation, meteorology and disaster forecasting//Sopryazhennye zadachi mekhaniki, informatiki i ekologii: Materials of International conference. Tomsk: Izd-vo Tom. un-Ta, P. 911. (In Russian). 16. Ivanov V.A. (1987) Thunderstorm activity and forest fires//Lesnye pozhary i borba s nimi/VNIILM. M.., P. 208217. (In Russian). 17. Alexander M. E., Lawson B. D., Stocks B. J., Van Wagner, C. E. (1984) User guide to the Canadian Forest Fire Behaviour Prediction System: Rate of spread relationships/Canadian Forest Service Fire Danger Group, 73 p. 18. Baranovskiy N., Zharikova M. A Web-Oriented Geoinformation System Application for Forest Fire Danger Prediction in Typical Forests of the Ukraine//Lecture Notes in Geoinformation and Cartography. 2014. Thematic Cartography for the Society. P. 13-22. 19. Grishin A.M., Baranovskii N.V. Comparative analysis of simple models of drying of the layer of forest combustibles, including the data of experiments and natural observations//Journal of Engineering Physics and Thermophysics. 2003. Vol. 76, P. 1154 1159. 20. Kuznetsov G.V., Baranovskiy N.V., Barakhnin V.B. Mathematical simulation of heat transfer at deciduous tree ignition by cloud-To-ground lightning discharge//EPJ Web of Conferences. 2015. Vol. 82. Paper 01019. P. 1 6. 21. Esau K. Anatomy of seed plants. Wiley. 1977. 576 P. 22. Gusarov A.V., Smurov I. Gas-dynamic boundary conditions of evaporation and condensation: Numerical analysis of the Knudsen layer//Physics of Fluid. 2002. Vol. 14. P. 4242-4255. 23. Majumdar P. Computational Methods for Heat and Mass Transfer. CRC Press. 2005. 744 P. 24. Lee K.D. Python Programming Fundamentals. Springer. 2014. 239 P.