Инд. авторы:	Petukhin A.G., Gusev A.A., Chebrov V.N.
Заглавие:	Correlative relationships between tsunami height and strong ground motion parameters: Japanese earthquakes
Библ. ссылка:	Petukhin A.G., Gusev A.A., Chebrov V.N. Correlative relationships between tsunami height and strong ground motion parameters: Japanese earthquakes // Journal of Volcanology and Seismology. - 2015. - Vol.9. - Iss. 6. - P.387-401. - ISSN 0742-0463. - EISSN 1819-7108.
Внешние системы:	DOI: 10.1134/S0742046315060056; РИНЦ: 26810429; SCOPUS: 2-s2.0-84951771042; WoS: 000367342300005;
Реферат:	eng: When a large earthquake occurs off a coast, the resulting ground motion can soon be followed by the arrival of tsunami waves. This interrelationship can be useful for issuing tsunami alerts. This study aims at detecting correlative relationships between the intensity (runup) of a tsunami at a site along the coast and ground motion parameters at the same site due to the earthquake that produced the tsunami. Our estimates were derived by combining historical and instrumental data for eight sites along the Pacific coast of Japan. Our regression analysis of collected and systematized data used the tobit model, which is able to incorporate all tsunami data, including those below the tsunami-detection threshold. We show that if such tsunamis are neglected by the standard regression model, the result is to overestimate the height of predicted tsunamis. Analysis of the regression results shows that when a tsunami-generating earthquake has occurred a tsunami with runup that is equal to or greater than 50 cm should be expected if peak ground motion velocities greater than 7 cm/s have been recorded at the same site, with the probability of the failure to predict being 16%. © 2015, Pleiades Publishing, Ltd.
Издано:	2015
Физ. характеристика:	с.387-401
Цитирование:	1. Alekseev, A.S. and Gusiakov, V.K., On the evaluation of tsunami hazards due to submarine earthquakes, in Zemletryaseniya i preduprezhdenie stikhiinykh bedstvii (Earthquakes and Prevention of Natural Disasters), Proc. 27th Intern. Geological Congress, Moscow, August 4–14, 1984, vol. 6, Moscow: Nauka, 1984, pp. 127–133. 2. Amemiya, T., Tobitmodels: A survey, J. Econometrics, 1984, no. 24 (1–2), pp. 3–61, doi:10.1016/03044076(84)90074-5 3. Chebrov, V.N., Gusev, A.A., and Chebrov, D.V., Methods, algorithms, and software for tsunami alert issue before magnitude calculations and location of hypocenter of the earthquakes have been completed, in 3-ya nauchnotekhnicheskaya konferentsiya “Problemy kompleksnogo geofizicheskogo monitoringa Dal’nego Vostoka Rossii” (3rd conf. “Problems in Multidisciplinary Geophysical Monitoring of the Russian Far East”), collection of articles, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii, 2011, pp. 468–471. 4. Ekspertnaya baza dannykh po nablyudeniyam tsunami v Tikhom okeane Instituta vychislitel’noi Mekhaniki i Matematicheskoi Geofiziki (IVMiMG) SO AN Expert Data Base on Tsunami Observations in the Pacific of the Institute of Computational Mechanics and Mathematical Geophysics (ICM&MG), Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, http://tsunssccru/htdbpac. Global Historical Tsunami Database, National Geophysical Data Center, World Data Center (NGDC/WDC) Boulder, Colorado (available at http://wwwngdcnoaa. gov/hazard/tsu_dbshtml). 5. Gusev, A.A. Shumilina, L.S., Modeling the intensity–magnitude–distance relation based on the concept of an incoherent extended earthquake source, Volcanology and Seismology, 2000, nos. 4–5, pp. 443–464. 6. Gusev, A.A., Gordeev, E.I., Guseva, E.M., Petukhin, A.G., and Chebrov, V.N., The first version of the Amax(MW, R) relation for Kamchatka, PAGEOPH, 1997, vol. 149, pp. 299–312. 7. Gusiakov, V.K., Kalashnikova, T.V., Khidasheli, D.G., and Marchuk, An.G., Analysis of the Tsunami Travel Time Maps for Damaging Tsunamigenic Earthquakes in the World Ocean, Joint Report of the NTL/ICMMG and WAPMERR for the IOC/UNESCO, Novosibirsk, Geneva, 2006. 8. Iida, K., Magnitude and energy of earthquakes accompanied by tsunami, and tsunami energy, J. Earth. Sci., Nagoya Univ., 1958, pp. 101–112. 9. Istoricheskaya baza dannykh po tsunami dlya Mirovogo okeana (Historical Tsunami Database for the World Ocean, HTDB/WLD) compiled at the Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics (ICM&MG) of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, http://tsunssccru/nh/tsunamiphp 10. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Strong-motion Database, http://wwwdatajmagojp/svd/eqev/data/ kyoshin/jishin/indexhtml (in Japanese). 11. Medvedev, S.V., An International Seismic Intensity Scale, in Seismicheskoe raionirovanie SSSR (Seismic Zonation of the USSR), Moscow: Nauka, 1968, pp. 151–162. 12. Sigelman, L. and Zeng, L., Analyzing censored and sample-selected data with tobit and Heckit models, Political Analysis, 1999, vol. 8, no. 2, pp. 167–182. 13. Solov’ev, S.L., The Recurrence of Earthquakes and Tsunamis in the Pacific Ocean, in Volny tsunami (Tsunami Waves), Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk: IMGiG DVO RAN, 1972, pp. 7–47. 14. Solov’ev, S.L. and Poplavskaya, L.N., Estimating the Tsunami Hazard due to a Near Earthquake from Observation of the Associated Macroseismic Effect, Izv. AN SSSR, Ser Geofiz., 1982, no. 11, pp. 54–56. 15. Strong-motion Database, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), http://wwwdatajmagojp/svd/eqev/data/kyoshin/ jishin/indexhtml (in Japanese). 16. Strong-motion Seismograph Networks (KNET, KiK-net), National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED), http://wwwkikbosai. gojp/ (in English). 17. The Annual Seismological Bulletin of Japan for 2007, JMA, 2008, DVD-ROM (in Japanese). 18. Tobin, J., Estimation of relationships for limited dependent variables, Econometrica (The Econometric Society), 1958, no. 26 (1), pp. 24–36, doi:10.2307/1907382 19. Usami, T. and Daiwa Exploration & Consulting Co. Ltd., Eds., Seismic Intensity Distributions and Isoseismal Maps of the Japanese Historical Earthquakes, Japan Electric Association, 1994 (in Japanese). 20. Usami, T. and Daiwa Exploration & Consulting Co. Ltd., Eds.,: Seismic Intensity Distributions and Isoseismal Maps of the Japanese Historical Earthquakes, Japan Electric Association, revised and extended edition, 2010 (in Japanese).